Can timid Dragapult OHKO with Choice Specs or just Modest?

I recently asked if a modest or timid nature for Choice Specs Dragapult was generally better in competitive single battles in Sw/Sh and received one answer in favor of timid and another in favor of modest. Here is the reasoning why both natures are good for Specs Dragapult.

Timid:• Sp. Attack is already boosted by Choice Specs• Multiple mons can outspeed and OHKO Modest Dragapult, but not Timid Dragapult• SpA Stat with 252 EVs: 299 x 1.5 = 449 SpA with choice specs• Spe stat with 252 EVs: 421

Modest:• Dragapult already has an insane speed stat• Modest nature allows it to make up for its lower SpA stat than its Atk stat• SpA stat with 252 EVs: 328 x 1.5 = 492 SpA with choice specs• Spe stat with 252 EVs: 383

I should mention that I do run a sticky web team, so Modest seems like it would be the obvious choice. However, my sticky web setter (shuckle) can be KO’d by multi-hit attacks before it can set it and sticky web can be removed by Defog and rapid spin users. Here is my Dragapult’s information:

Dragapult @ Choice specsAbility: InfiltratorNature: Modest/Timid (Still unsure)Ev Spread: 252 SpA, 252 Spe, 4 HPIVs: All 31• Dragon Pulse (I don’t like Draco meteor)• Shadow ball (Go-to move)• Fire blast• Thunderbolt

So my question is this: Is there a noticeable difference between a 449 SpA stat for Dragapult (Timid) and a 492 SpA stat (Modest) or would both usually be able to OHKO with Specs + STAB Shadow Ball (excluding dark and normal types)? This will decide for me which nature is better.

Thank you in advance.

Pleaselog inorregisterto add a comment.

I would say Modest for a number reasons. First I will go strictly by reasons from the information you have given.First, Dragapult is the second fastest Pokémon behind Zeraora. The next fastest Pokémon in OU is Alakazam which Dragapult outspeeds even if Alakazam has Timid and Dragapult has Modest.Second, with Choice Specs, Dragapult is a potent sweeper, but even more so with Modest. I will give some calculations later.Also, you said you were running Sticky Web team. This will reduce the speed of many common Choice Scarf users like Alakazam, Excadrill and Urshifu. With Sticky Web, you still outspeed them. The only exception to this being Pokémon like Rotom or Hydreigon. You would outsource them with Timid, but I believe you are better off switching out.Now, my final reason I say Modest allows it to break some very common walls like Toxapex and Ferrothorn.Some Calculations to prove my point.

So, Timid or Modest doesn’t make a difference against Toxapex when using Thunderbolt. It is still a 2HKO.

For instance, On Clefable, a Modest Dragapult with Choice Specs has a 69.4% chance to 2HKO Clefable with Shadow Ball. However, With Timid, it is only a 0.4% to 2HKO. Clefable will 2HKO Dragapult with Moonblast. Clefable has 252 HP and 4 SpD, a standard Smogon set.

However, I must avoid being biased here. On most Sweepers you will encounter in OU, Timid or Modest doesn’t make a difference. You will still OHKO or 2HKO most of them, but there are certain scenarios that I believe make it worth while.

So, in conclusion, I believe Modest is better On your team due to your Sticky Web support and Dragapult’s sheer speed to outspeed many of threats. Even due to the power of Dragapult like I said earlier, there are still scenarios where Modest gives you the slight edge over Timid and in this case, I believe that Modest outweighs Timid.I hope this helps.