DexNav Questions (Spinda - Full Potential - Contrary)?

2 minute read

What is the chance of getting a Spinda in ORAS with full potential, Contrary ability, shiny, and possibly having Psycho Cut as a move (I don’t really care about the level)? Should I just keep the shiny Spinda(s) I have collected and move on?

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Because you mentioned having several shinies already, I’m going to assume that you’ve already maxed out Spinda’s search level at 999. This would make the probability of finding a shiny~1/476without the shiny charm, or1/173with it.In case your search level is below 999,here’s a handy DexNav shiny calculator.

At a search level >100, the probability of…

(the three statistics above are fromBulbapedia. Statistics for lower search levels, if needed, are available there.)

With the egg move, however, there is the additional chance that the egg move will not be Psycho Cut. In ORAS, Spinda has 16 egg moves, therefore, the probability of Spinda having PC,on top ofthe probability it has an egg move at all is1/16 x 83/100, which is83/1600or~1/20.

The probability that an encountered Spinda will have all of these properties would be the product of all the individual chances multiplied together.

Without Psycho Cut; no help from Shiny Charm:1/476 x 23/100 x 3/25 =69/1,190,000or~1/17,247.

Without Psycho Cut; help from Shiny Charm:1/173 x 23/100 x 3/25 =69/432,500or~1/6,268.

With Psycho Cut; no help from Shiny Charm:1/476 x 23/100 x 3/25 x 1/20 =69/23,800,000or~1/344,928.

With Psycho Cut; help from Shiny Charm:1/173 x 23/100 x 3/25 x 1/20 =69/8,650,000or~1/125,363.

So, yeah. Overall, your chances are not that great. However, keep in mind that these chances are for single encounters completely exempt from a chain. Chaining will, naturally, increase these chances, but it was hard enough finding the statistics for everything here (even Bulbapedia only had tested estimates, rather than exact figures). I’m not sure that I have enough patience to try and find out just exactly how much each part increases at which encounter intervals. So for now, here’s what I got. Hope this helps.