How do I find the chance of catching a Pokemon with a catch rate of 5?

1 minute read

Hey, I’m making a fakemon, and I want to know the probability of catching it, and how to calculate it myself. Assume that it has full health and a normal PokeBall is used (like how PokemonDB lists the chance on its Pokedex pages).

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This, however, has a quantity, a, that is unknown. I don’t know much about your Pokemon, so unfortunately, some assumptions are compulsory. Let’s figure this out, shall we? First, let us find A. I am assuming that you don’t have any status. I am also assuming it’s level 100. Here’s the Math.

((3 * 381 (See 1) - 2 * 381) * 5 * 1)/(3 * 381) = (381 * 5)/(381 * 3) = 4/3So let’s try and find B.

655356/(255/a)^0.1875 = 24472.574545454…

Alright, so how does this = a percent? Well, let’s see this now.

“So what is a Shake Check? Basically, a random number is generated in between 0 and 65535. That number is compared to your b value, which is your shake probability. If your b value is smaller or equal to the random number generated, than your Shake Check fails, and you DO NOT catch the Pokemon. 4 Shake Checks are performed, and if you pass all 4 then the Pokemon is caught.” Sempi (See 2)

So, with that outlined, let’s get our final answer: 0.6266 ^ 4 = 15.4% Now, this seems awfully high. It is quite high, however, the main killer is simply the rate. We can see a correlation of the higher the HP, the higher the catch rate. Now, the other difference is level matters. Hope this helps!

1: The HP stat with Max IVs, No Evs: I utilized a stat calc for cresselia, ‘cause it has base 120 HP2:The question that I got the quote from