What are the chances of Blizzard hitting, freezing and critical hitting a Pokémon after two Double Teams?

1 minute read

I was training my Absol in BW2 at Dragonspiral Tower and I fought a wild Vanilish, it had missed its Blizzard two times in a row and I used those turns on double team and then night slash the next turn which didn’t one shot it . Anyway due to Absol’s frailty I had a focus sash on it luckily, but this darn Vanilish managed to hit Blizzard after I had used double team twice before and Night Slash the turn before this hit, and not only did the Blizzard hit despite my evasiveness boosts, but it landed a critical hit and even froze my Absol, which only survived thanks to my focus Sash, at that point I had turned off the game and I haven’t touched it. Keep in mind there was no hailstorm active. I’ve also had extremely horrible luck in other Pokémon games but this takes the cake.

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After a +2 Evasion Boost, Blizzard will have a 42% chance to hit (.6 x 70).Blizzard has a 10% chance to freeze the target.There is a 1/16 chance in Gen 5 for a Critical hit to occur.

Multiply these and you get 21/8000 or a .2625% chance for Blizzard to hit, Freeze and critical hit on the same move.

If you want the chance for the entire battle, please comment.