What are the chances of this specific situation occurring?

I’m trying to do an Infernape solo run in Platinum, and Cynthia has slammed me every single time. Here’s the Infernape:

I’ve determined that if I want to win, I need the following to happen:

It doesn’t seem like the chances are very high for me to beat Cynthia, but I want to know about how long I’ll need to suffer for. Thanks in advance.

Pleaselog inorregisterto add a comment.

Before we start doing damage calculations, we need to make an artificial Infernape with every detail just like yours.

Thisis how our artificial Infernape looks. I have adjusted the EVs and IVs in such a way that they’re not the same as yours (since yours are unknown and hence can’t be replicated) butthe final effective stats are the same as your Infernape.These effective stats are ultimately what matter in damage calculation.

We will consider your Infernape to be level 73 for simplicity’s sake even though you mentioned it gains a level mid-battle. This would give slightly lower odds, but that difference wouldn’t matter much.

Since

The chance of landing a critical hit is straight up 1/16. Hence, the chance of Spiritomb not landing a critical hit is15/16.

Source

Rock Slide inflicts damage and has a 30% chance of causing each target to flinch.

The chance of flinching Milotic with Rock Slide is3/10.

Source

Since we need to know “how long you’ll need to suffer,” we’ll go with the worst possible odds out of the two, which is a critical hit with Rock Slide.

The odds for a critical hit with Rock Slide holding a Razor Claw are1/8.

Source

This is where uncertainties start to appear. The EVs of Cynthia’s Pokemon have never been officially confirmed. Bulbapedia only states information about their IVs:

In Pokémon Diamond, Pearl, and Platinum all of Cynthia’s Pokémon have 31 IVs in all 6 of their stats.

Source

For the sake of making these calculations possible, we have assumed the information onthisspreadsheet fromthiswebsite to be correct.Hence, all of Cynthia’s Pokemon have 0 EVs in all stats.

Lvl 73 0 Atk Infernape Close Combat vs. Lvl 62 0 HP / 0 Def Garchomp on a critical hit: 211-249 (93.7 - 110.6%) – 62.5% chance to OHKO

Hence, the odds are62.5/100 or 625/1000.

Hence, the odds are1.

Since

The chance of Lucario not landing a critical hit is 15/16.

Also

Lvl 73 0 Atk Infernape Close Combat vs. Lvl 60 0 HP / 0 Def Lucario: 278-330 (161.6 - 191.8%) – guaranteed OHKO

Hence, the odds are15/16.

You’ll need to hit a total of 3 Rock Slide (see below - 2 on Togekiss and 1 on Milotic).A : Hitting 2 Rock Slide on Togekiss ; P(A)=81/100B : Hitting 1 Rock Silde on Milotic ; P(B)=9/10

P(AnB), i.e., the probably of both happening simultaneously is P(A)*P(B)=729/100.

Hence, the odds are729/1000.

To calculate this, we would have to assumethis answerto be correct. So we need to avoid getting a Pokemon below 25% HP.

Roserade: It goes down to a single Flamethrower. The chance is 100%.

Togekiss: Although Close Combat does more damage, I have used Stone Edge for calcs to prevent defense drops and because we want lowest possible odds.Lvl 73 0 Atk Infernape Rock Slide vs. Lvl 60 0 HP / 0 Def Togekiss: 90-108 (47.3 - 56.8%) – 87.5% chance to 2HKOThe chance is 87.5%, or 875/1000.

Lucario: It goes down to a single Close Combat. The chance is 100%.

Milotic: It goes down to Rock Slide + Grass Knot without Rock Slide putting in the <25% HP range. The chance is 100%.

Garchomp: It goes down to a crit Close Combat. The chance of OHKOing with a crit and avoiding the <25% HP range is 1/8.

Have fun lol.

Help this helps! :)Don’t ask me how much time it took me to make this answer.

Special thanks toPokemon Showdown! Damage CalculatorandPokemon Showdown! Teambuilderfor making these calculations possible.