What are the odds of encountering this specific Stakataka in Ultra Moon?

IVs are 31/31/15/X/31/0(TheboldedIVs are the IVsthat I’m aiming for. X doesn’t matter, but I’m trying to avoid aperfect Sp. Atk IV)

A Lonely nature (I’m using a Sync)

I’ve been soft-resetting for this Stakataka for a few days now and I’m curious as to how rare this particular one is.

Pleaselog inorregisterto add a comment.

Stakataka has three of six IVs that are guaranteed to be perfect. 3 IVs * 6 IVs =18 different waysthe Pokemon can have three randomly-generated perfect IVs. They are listed here, assumingxis a random value:

We’ll call thethree possibilitiesthat would work possibilitiesa,bandc. We’ll calculate them one-by-one:

Fora, 1/18 perfect IV options would suffice, and you’d need a 1/32 chance to go in your favour three times. You’d also need the coin toss for Synchronise to work. So:Pr(a)= 1/18 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 1/2 = 1/1179648

Forc, 1/18 perfect IV options would suffice, and you’d need a 1/32 chance to go in your favour three times. You’d also need the coin toss for Synchronise to work. So it’s the same asa:Pr(c)= 1/18 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 1/2 = 1/1179648

So your chances will be as follows:

First, if you’ll allow the SAtk IV to be of any value:Pr(a + b + c)= 1/1179648 + 1/36864 + 1/1179648 = 17/589824 or roughly1/34696

If you want these rarities in context, the first option isover eight times rarer than finding a random Shiny, and the second over nine times rarer. Long story short, you’ll be sat down soft resetting for a very long time if you want this particular Pokemon. :P