What are the odds of slathering honey on a random Honey Tree and the Pokemon you receive being a Shiny Munchlax?

I started playing Diamond again, put honey on a tree, and the six hours will be done 2 hours from now. Just wondering what the odds are.

As a percentage please.

I am asking because I am no bueno at math and am surprised no one has asked this yet.

Pleaselog inorregisterto add a comment.

Ok, let me see what I can do. If I’m incorrect, I’ll hide the answer.

First, there are 4/21 locations where the munchlax can be. Of course, the determination ofwherethe munchlax tree is is based on a formula using modulus operations and utilizing your trainer I’d and secret trainer id, however, that does not change theamountof trees there are, therefore making the probability still 4/21.

Next, we have to account for the chance of even getting a munchlax. The chances of getting a munchlax are 1%. This is using bulbapedia.

Finally, we need to take into account the actual shiny odds. In diamond and pearl, the shiny odds are 1/8192. Based off of this, let’s do the math.

The answer is approximately 2.33 * 10 ^ -7, or 1/4300800